The virus has claimed the lives of nearly 6,000 Arizonans since the start of the pandemic. That list includes Tolleson Union High School English teacher and assistant baseball coach Ash Freiderich. COVID-19 is once again surging across the Valley. “The storm is here. We are in it and it will only get worse until we act now,” said University of Arizona College of Medicine Public Health Director Dr. Shad Marvasti.

In a head-to-head comparison, researchers at the University of Arizona found that, in symptomatic people, a rapid test made by Quidel could detect more than 80% of coronavirus infections found by a slower, lab-based PCR test. But when the rapid test, called the Sofia, was used instead to randomly screen students and staff members who did not feel sick, it detected only 32% of the positive cases identified by the PCR test. Study author David Harris, a professor of immunobiology and director the biorepository at the University of Arizona, said that some of the concerns about the Sofia's accuracy could be overcome with repeat testing.

To be sure, it is painful and often lonely to abandon social rituals - all of them, not just Thanksgiving and Christmas but funerals, weddings, graduations, birthday parties and religious observances. "They all affirm our social identity," says Elizabeth Connick, chief of the infectious diseases division at the University of Arizona College of Medicine at Tucson. "I fear that some people simply can't bear to stay away. They will attend social gatherings, and some will get infected."

While only one gathering over 100 people was reported the week of Oct. 19, seven were reported the week of Oct. 26 to CART, a collaboration between the university and the Tucson Police Department, said Campus Reentry Task Force Director Dr. Richard Carmona, 17th U.S. surgeon general and a Distinguished Professor in the Mel & Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health.

"I think you have to kind of learn by doing here. I think you start low and you go up slow," said Dr. Shad Marvasti, director of public health, prevention and health promotion with the University of Arizona College of Medicine – Phoenix. Masks and social distancing are a must, he added. "I think if we can take that seriously, then we can have the opportunity to enjoy ourselves and watch sports."

Similar to COVID-19, the symptoms for Valley Fever can range from fatigue, cough, and fever, to muscle and joint aches or pain along with rashes on your body. Dr. John Galgiani, director of the Valley Fever Center for Excellence at the University of Arizona, said it’s important to know the symptoms. “If the COVID test is negative those patients should be tested for Valley Fever. If they have an illness that they thought might be the coronavirus, they also might have caught coccidioidomycosis."

Arizona has maintained relatively low case numbers since the summer, but they are now creeping to levels seen just a few weeks before its surge. And as a conflagration engulfs the Midwest and Mountain West, public health experts and elected officials in Arizona are pleading with residents to maintain mitigation measures they say played a critical role in beating back the virus and hold lessons for other states – including mask mandates that covered 85% of the population. "I'm becoming more of a firm believer that face masks are a truly effective intervention in this particular outbreak and should be considered our first line of defense," said Joe Gerald, a University of Arizona public health researcher who tracks coronavirus trends in the state.

Dr. Shad Marvasti, director of public health, prevention and health promotion with the University of Arizona College of Medicine, suggests that people participate in a "trunk or treat"-style Halloween to socially distance.

Tucson researchers following Arizona's COVID-19 trends are bracing against the renewed push for "herd immunity" by the Trump administration. Antibody tests in recent weeks show a statewide positivity rate of about 10%, according to Arizona Department of Health Services data, while University of Arizona public health researcher Joe Gerald finds it closer to 12%. The positivity rate including all tests statewide since the pandemic began is around 7% while UA testing shows it is about 4% in Pima County. Regardless of the exact numbers, this means one thing to Dr. Janko Nikolich-Zugich, head of the University of Arizona's Department of Immunobiology at the University of Arizona College of Medicine: Roughly 90% of Arizonans have not been exposed to the virus, and are therefore vulnerable.

Despite a surge in COVID-19 cases in the state, people still celebrated Halloween on Saturday. In the meantime, health experts are warning big Halloween parties and gatherings could be COVID-19 "super spreaders." Dr. Shad Marvasti with the University of Arizona College of Medicine in Phoenix is interviewed.